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Superstock Investor

Morning Briefing

Friday, January 20, 2012

Morning Matters:

Weekly Market Crash Indicators

This week we move from DEFCON 1 to DEFCON 2. This means we are now 75% invested from 100% invested. Things are getting a bit frothy and having some cash to deploy at lower levels will prove useful.

In January, 2011 we began to produce commentary called "Market Crash Indicators". It is now fully produced on a weekly basis only in The Buttonwood Club, detailed breakdown.

Below is our review of the calls week by week. Each week we look at 5 indicators of market peaks and troughs. They are technical in nature. We then take these five indicators and assign one rating to them.

DEFCON 5 is the worst rating and DEFCON 1 the best rating. This rating system is the inverse of the miltary's DEFCON rating where 1 is the worst.

Below is our summary table of our weekly DEFCON ratings. For each DEFCON Rating we assign a percentage invested or short, ranging from 100% long to 110% short. They are as follows:

[Image 1] [Image 2]

This methodology has resulted in a return of 23.72% versus the S&P 500 return of 3.27%.


Today's Superstock Investor Stock Scorecard:

by Superstock Investor


General Electric reported earnings of $0.39 cents versus $0.38 cents. The stock is fairly valued and there is little upside in this name. In fact, currently GE will not bring good things to a portfolio.

Company Information

Sector: Industrials
Industry: Industrial Conglomerates
Market Cap:  $195,839 (Millions)


  Price %Gain  
Current Price $18.55    
Price Target $18.70 0.8%  
Upper Bound $24.50 32.1%  
Lower Bound $14.28 -23.0%  

Fundamental Variables

P/E Ratio 8.6    
Sales Growth -4.2%    

Valuation Variables

  Past Current Future
Profitability (CFROI) 5.3% 6.9% 5.6%
Growth (in Assets) 1.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Color Legend
Excellent Top 10%
Good 11- 30%
Average 31- 70%
Fair 71- 90%
Poor Bottom 10%

Stock data last updated 06-JAN-12.

Data provided by Ativo Research LLC. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Ativo Research LLC is not liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing this page, you agree not to redistribute the information found herein.
Altivo Research Value+Plus® Release 2007


Articles That Matter:

Do Not Cut Too Much

IMF Head Christine Lagarde warns governments not to cut too much or the ramifications could be dire. These words are important as they come in front of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Lagarde's Words