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The Madison LetterArchivesWEDNESDAY, July 28, 2010:Daily Commentary All Madison scores on the major indexes remain strong. Recent buy signals EZA, EWZ and EEM are now all winners and will be closed for nice gains on Wednesday's open. More... MONDAY, July 26, 2010:Daily Commentary All Madison scores on the major indexes are now back above 0. Recent buy signals EZA, EWZ and EEM are now all winners in terms of results. More... WEDNESDAY, July 21, 2010:Daily Commentary All Madison scores on the major indexes are now back above 0. Can you say whipsaw! Recent buy signals EZA, EWZ and EEM are now all winners in terms of results. Last week we noted, "It makes sense to go ... More... MONDAY, July 19, 2010:Daily Commentary All Madison scores on the major indexes are now back below 0. Recent buy signals EZA, EWZ and EEM are mixed in terms of results. Last week we noted, "It makes sense to go back on a buyer's strike until Madison scores move ... More... WEDNESDAY, July 14, 2010:Daily Commentary All Madison scores on the major indexes are above 0. Recent buy signals EZA, EWZ and EEM are winners now. Last week we noted, "It makes sense to go More... MONDAY, July 12, 2010:Daily Commentary Several Madison scores on the major indexes are above 0. Recent buy signals EZA and EEM are winners now. Last week we noted, "It makes sense to go back on a buyer's strike until Madison scores move above 0. We will remain with our open buys." We have ALMOST but not QUITE accomplished this. A move back above 2212 on the NASDAQ Composite is key here. More... THURSDAY, July 8, 2010:Daily Commentary All our recent buy signals close back to winners and in fact EZA is a winner. Last week we noted, "It makes sense to ... More... TUESDAY, July 6, 2010:Daily Commentary Madison scores on the major indexes are firmly under 0. All our recent buy signals have flipped back to the losing side. Last week we noted, "It makes sense to go back on a buyer's strike until Madison scores move above 0. We will remain with our open buys." The second quarter is toast and ... More... MONDAY, June 28, 2010:Daily Commentary It makes sense to go back on a buyer's strike until BFG scores move above 0. We will remain with our open buys. There are three days left in the second quarter. Watch for some window dressing. More... FRIDAY, June 25, 2010:Daily Commentary Madison scores on the major indexes have moved back under 0. All our recent buy signals now slight losers again. It makes sense to go back on a buyer's strike until BFG scores move above ... More... MONDAY, June 21, 2010:Daily Commentary All our major indexes are open buys and the VIX an open sell. This is one of our most powerful signals in recent memory. The sell on the VIX is finally starting to kick into gear. More... THURSDAY, June 17, 2010:Daily Commentary Madison scores on the najor indexes are strong. All our recent buy signals are making money. It makes sense to nibble on stocks here. A break below 1084 would change our mind. More... MONDAY, June 14, 2010:Daily Commentary Madison score on the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ 100 move back above 0. This current buy signal has been a tough call. The turn is close and when it comes the move will be fast and furious. Last week was the first winning week in six weeks. More... TUESDAY, June 8, 2010:Daily Commentary As noted, a break below the February low of 1044 would be problematic but we have now moved to that level three times and a fourth test may be in order. More... THURSDAY, June 3, 2010:Daily Commentary The NASDAQ 100 sees its Madison score move above 0. This is the first sign that the correction may now be in the rear view mirror. Watch for other major indexes to move above ... More... TUESDAY, June 1, 2010:Daily Commentary All our major indexes are open buys and the VIX an open sell. This is one of our most powerful signals in recent memory and is struggling which is very telling. A break below the February low of 1044 would be problematic. More... FRIDAY, May 28, 2010:Daily Commentary A nice rebound is underway. Will we hold 1100 and begin to recover to 1150? More... MONDAY, May 24, 2010:Daily Commentary Since the March 2009 rally began, each selloff ended at a higher level than the previous selloff. Now that is at risk. The low in February before we began the current rally was 1044.50. The other important low was "The Flash Crash" low of 1065.79. Currently, in hindside "The Flash Crash" ... More... FRIDAY, May 21, 2010:Daily Commentary After a nice recovery from the low two weeks ago stocks are struggling. Since the March 2009 rally began, each selloff ended at a higher level than the previous selloff. Now that is at risk. More... MONDAY, May 17, 2010:Daily Commentary We are all in since last Monday's open which has been the correct call although a percent of the gains were given up at the end of last week. As Madison scores get above 0 the easy money is in. f More... THURSDAY, May 13, 2010:Daily Commentary We began to offer a buy and sell strategy via our Madison Market Timing Indicator at the beginnging of April of 2007. There are now 13 winning trades to 6 losing trades with our market timing results. We established a buy on Monday. More... MONDAY, May 10, 2010:Daily Commentary Here we go. Monday we will move from cash back into the market. Being in cash has saved us about 71 points. Trend scores have dropped under 40 and volume turned positive into the close. On a ETF level, we pick up several buys last Thursday. For the week, the S&P 500 was lower for a second week. More... THURSDAY, May 6, 2010:Daily Commentary We remain in cash. However, Madison scores are extended. Trend scores need to drop a bit and then we are a buyer of the major indexes. On a ETF level, we pick up several buys this morning. They are EEM EWZ EWA. Our internal measure of breadth has signaled a near term peak after getting a buy signal back at 1073 on the S&P 500 on January 29th. More... TUESDAY, May 4, 2010:Daily Commentary For the week, the S&P 500 had its worst week since January. A test of S&P 500 at the 1200 level and Dow Jones 11000 happened last week and for the time being these levels have held. This morning the S&P 500 will break back below 1200. We remain in cash. More... FRIDAY, April 30, 2010:Daily Commentary For the week, the S&P 500 is down slighly more than 10 points. A test of S&P 500 at the 1200 level and Dow Jones 11000 happened earlier in the week and for the time being these levels have held. More... MONDAY, April 26, 2010:Daily Commentary We have moved back to cash. Our internal measures are signaling a potential weekly top. Further test of S&P 500 at the 1200 level and Dow Jones 11000 seem to be in order. More... THURSDAY, April 22, 2010:Daily Commentary We remain in cash. Futures are weak again this morning. the inability to hold 1200 on the S&P 500 and 11,000 on the Dow could be the catalyst to get the selling moving to the downside More... MONDAY, April 19, 2010:Daily Commentary We have moved back to cash and in front of the weakness seen on Friday and Monday. Our internal measures are signaling a potential weekly top. Madison scores on the Dow and NASDAQ indexes were above ... More... FRIDAY, April 16, 2010:Daily Commentary We have moved back to cash last week. Our internal measures are signaling a potential top. Madison scores on the Dow and NASDAQ indexes are above 20. Better early and playing prevent defense than running for the hills in a panic. More... MONDAY, April 12, 2010:Daily Commentary We have moved back to cash. Our internal measures are signaling a potential top. Better safe than sorry. More... THURSDAY, April 8, 2010:Daily Commentary The S&P 500 has moved above 1150 and the Madison scores are above 0. We moved out of cash back to a buy on the Madison Market Timing Indicator on Thursday 2/18, almost two months ago. We are moving to cash this morning as we see several problems in our numbers especially our internal A/D line. Also, we will close our buy on the Software HOLDRS (SWH). More... TUESDAY, April 6, 2010:Daily Commentary Indexes have recharged with the past two week consolidation and futures are mixed post the job's numbers which came in okay but nothing spectacular as we head into next week's trading. We remain invested. More... MONDAY, April 5, 2010:Daily Commentary Indexes have recharged with the past two week consolidation and futures are strong as we head into next Monday's trading. More... THURSDAY, April 1, 2010:Daily Commentary The S&P 500 has moved above 1150 and the Madison scores are nicely above 0. We moved out of cash back to a buy on the Madison Market Timing Indicator on Thursday 2/18, more than a month ago. Indexes have recharged with the past two week consolidation and futures are strong as we head into the first day of the new quarter. More... MONDAY, March 29, 2010:Daily Commentary There are a couple signs now need to be watched closely as a pending daily not weekly top may be forming. More... THURSDAY, March 25, 2010:Daily Commentary The S&P 500 has moved above 1150 and the Madison scores are nicely above 0. We moved out of cash back to a buy on the Madison Market Timing Indicator on Thursday 2/18, more than a month ago. More... MONDAY, March 22, 2010:Daily Commentary Many are questioning the ability of the market to continue to advance. The correction they believe in imminent. We do not concur but a couple signs now need to be watched closely More... WEDNESDAY, March 17, 2010:Daily Commentary The S&P 500 has moved above 1150 and the Madison scores are nicely above 0. We moved out of cash back to a buy on the Madison Market Timing Indicator on Thursday 2/18, almost a month ago. More... MONDAY, March 15, 2010:Daily Commentary We moved out of cash back to a buy on the Madison Market Timing Indicator on Thursday 2/18, almost a month ago. Many are questioning the ability of the market to continue to advance. The correction they believe in imminent. We do not concur as of Friday's close. More... WEDNESDAY, March 10, 2010:Daily Commentary Looks like the 1100 level is going to stick. The $64,000 question is can the S&P 500 move above 1150? More... MONDAY, March 8, 2010:Daily Commentary Looks like the 1100 level is going to stick. Things are starting to get a bit frothy. Expect a pullback as the S&P 500 is now up 6 days in a row. More... FRIDAY, March 5, 2010:Daily Commentary It is all about the job data this morning. Can the advance continue. We believe that it can and should. More... WEDNESDAY, March 3, 2010:Daily Commentary We note the sell point on the VIX is 16.75. If the VIX drops to 16.75, then the S&P 500 will be much higher. Therefore, watch how the VIX trades. More... MONDAY, March 1, 2010:Daily Commentary Looks like the 1100 level is going to stick. Could a move to 1150 be next? More... FRIDAY, February 26, 2010:Daily Commentary The S&P 500 is now back above 1100 and the Madison scores are still above 0. Whew!! We moved out of cash back to a buy on the Madison Market Timing Indicator last Thursday. Looks like ... More... WEDNESDAY, February 24, 2010:Daily Commentary The S&P 500 is now below 1100 but the Madison scores are still above 0. We moved out of cash back to a buy on the Madison Market Timing Indicator last Thursday. Looks like the 1100 level is going to be challenged here. More... MONDAY, February 22, 2010:Daily Commentary The S&P 500 is now back above 1100 and the Madison scores are nicely above 0. We moved out of cash back to a buy on the Madison Market Timing Indicator last Thursday. This is a correct signal as we went to a buy at 1099 and the S&P 500 is now at 1109. CGIAD More... THURSDAY, February 18, 2010:Daily Commentary The S&P 500 is now at 1099 and the Madison scores move back above 0. We will move out of cash back to a buy on the Madison Market Timing Indicator this morning. More... TUESDAY, February 16, 2010:Daily Commentary We remain in cash. This is good as we went to cash at 1115.49 and the S&P 500 is now at 1075.51. More... FRIDAY, February 12, 2010:Daily Commentary The S&P 500 is now at 1078 and still no buy signals. We remain in cash. This is good. Watch for a potential intraday alert if we move back to a buy on the Madison Market Timing Indicator. Futures are lower by about 8 S&P 500 points. More... WEDNESDAY, February 10, 2010:Daily Commentary We remain in cash. More... MONDAY, February 8, 2010:Daily Commentary The S&P 500 is now at 1066 and still no buy signals. We remain in cash. This is good. Watch for a potential intraday alert if we move back to a buy on the Madison Market Timing Indicator More... FRIDAY, February 5, 2010:Daily Commentary It was noted on Wednesday that, "We remain hopeful that if we move above the neutral point on the S&P 500 we can move back to invested. That level is 1120." The S&P 500 is now at 1063 and still no buy signals. We remain in cash. This is good. More... WEDNESDAY, February 3, 2010:Daily Commentary On Monday's open we bought the Software HOLDRS (SWH). It is now a nice winner. We remain hopeful that if we move above the neutral point on the S&P 500 we can move back to invested. That level is ... More... MONDAY, February 1, 2010:Daily Commentary All major indexes have Madison scores around -20 so if Trend can get a bit more exhausted then we might have a plethora of buy signals on the major indexes soon. If buys are produced, expect to see a Flash Alert. On a ETF basis, several ETFs in the More... FRIDAY, January 29, 2010:Daily Commentary We will cover the short on Japan (EWJ). All major indexes have Madison scores around ... More... WEDNESDAY, January 27, 2010:Daily Commentary We covered the short on the Emerging Markets (EEM)for a gain of 6.41% in 17 days. Remain short both Netherlands (EWN) and Japan (EWJ). All major indexes have Madison scores very close to -20 so if Trend can get a bit more exhausted then we might have ... More... MONDAY, January 25, 2010:Daily Commentary We will cover the short on the Emerging Markets (EEM) and remain short both Netherlands (EWN) and Japan (EWJ). All major indexes have Madison scores under 20 so if Trend can get a bit more exhausted then we might have ... More... FRIDAY, January 22, 2010:Daily Commentary We move to cash this morning and there are 11 winning trades to 6 losing trades. The current buy signal will be closed on today's open. More... TUESDAY, January 19, 2010:Daily Commentary Madison sell points are rising to higher levels but we are short Emerging Markets (EEM)... More... FRIDAY, January 15, 2010:Daily Commentary We remain invested. The week has gotten off to a good start as we have added about 4 points on the S&P 500. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remains ... More... WEDNESDAY, January 13, 2010:Daily Commentary We remain invested. The year has gotten off to a good start but yesterday there was some turbulence. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has moved above 10500. NASDAQ indexes and now the S&P 500 have settled below 20 on their Madison scores while the other indexes More... MONDAY, January 11, 2010:Daily Commentary We began to offer a buy and sell strategy via our Madison Market Timing Indicator at the beginnging of April of 2007. We are currently invested and there are 11 winning trades to 6 losing trades. Our market timing signals have resulted in a return of 2.95% versus the S&P 500 losing -21.52%. So much for the concept that market timing does not work. More... FRIDAY, January 8, 2010:Daily Commentary We remain invested. The year has gotten off to a good start. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has moved above 10500. More... WEDNESDAY, January 6, 2010:Daily Commentary We are invested. The year has gotten off to a good start. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has recovered from Thursday's weakness. NASDAQ indexes and now the S&P 500 have settled ... More... MONDAY, January 4, 2010:Daily Commentary We are invested. Thursday's selloff does not concern us too much. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has slipped ever so slightly into the red. A bigger ... More... WEDNESDAY, December 30, 2009:Daily Commentary We are invested. NASDAQ indexes and now the S&P 500 have settled below 20 on their Madison scores while the other indexes are strong as well. Madison sell points are rising ... More... MONDAY, December 28, 2009:Daily Commentary Comments will be produced on Monday and Wednesday morning this week. Trading should be light but the bias remains to the upside. More... WEDNESDAY, December 23, 2009:Daily Commentary We are invested. NASDAQ indexes move above 20 while the other indexes are back above 0. We expected a breakout to the upside this week and that is exactly what we are getting. We pick up new buys More... MONDAY, December 21, 2009:Daily Commentary We are invested. NASDAQ indexes remain above 0 while the other indexes are struggling to move back above 0. Expect a breakout to the upside this week. More... FRIDAY, December 18, 2009:Daily Commentary We began to offer a buy and sell strategy via our Madison Market Timing Indicator at the beginnging of April of 2007. We are currently invested and there are 10 winning trades to 7 losing trades. Our market timing process has lost -1.45% while the S&P 500 has lost -22.86%. Who says market timing does not work!! More... WEDNESDAY, December 16, 2009:Daily Commentary We are invested. Monday was nirvana and yesterday was pain. Futures are on fire this morning. The major indexes Madison scorres remain firmly above 0. With options expiration in three days, there is a ... More... MONDAY, December 14, 2009:Daily Commentary We are moving from cash back to invested. The major indexes dipped below 0 this past week and just moved back into the positive. With options expiration week ahead, there is a good chance of a run to the upside this week. More... THURSDAY, December 10, 2009:Daily Commentary Our stay in cash could be brief but we do not mind being on the sidelines with all this volatility and the indexes going nowhere. More... MONDAY, December 7, 2009:Daily Commentary We are now in cash. Trend scores are high on almost all amjor indexes. This means a new trend could be getting ready to begin. Our stay in cash could be brief but we do not mind ... More... THURSDAY, December 3, 2009:Daily Commentary We are now in cash. Trend scores are around 70 on almost all amjor indexes. This means a new trend could be getting ready to begin. Our stay in cash could be brief. More... MONDAY, November 30, 2009:Daily Commentary We are now in cash and this worked well on Friday as the S&P 500 lost almost 20 points. Futures are up several points at 3.50 with the S&P 500 at 1093.00... More... FRIDAY, November 27, 2009:Daily Commentary We are now in cash and the fan is about to get hit hard. Futures are off sharply on a potential soverign bond default in Dubai. This should not happen but it is happening. More... MONDAY, November 23, 2009:Daily Commentary On Friday, an alert was sent out at 10:00 EST to close out our buy on the Madison Market Timing Indicator and to close longs in SPY, IEV and IBB. Intraday things began to deteriorate and we felt it made sense to lock in gains. More... WEDNESDAY, November 18, 2009:Daily Commentary Madison scores on the major indexes remain above the 0 line. Small cap are improving their performance. Options expiration week is playing out in a positive manner so far. We rermain invested. More... MONDAY, November 16, 2009:Daily Commentary Madison scores on the major indexes remain above the 0 line. Small cap names continue to struggle and this is a concern which will be watched closely. This week is options expiration week and in the past four years three of the years have been positive. More... FRIDAY, November 13, 2009:Daily Commentary Madison scores on the major indexes are all back above the 0 line. Small cap names continue to struggle and this is a concern. Failure of small caps to accelerate into year end could be a problem. More... WEDNESDAY, November 11, 2009:Daily Commentary Madison scores on the major indexes are all back above the 0 line. Things are good and it is an excellent time to buy stocks. More... MONDAY, November 9, 2009:Daily Commentary Madison scores on the major indexes improved and the Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ 100 are above the 0 line. Futures are on fire this morning to the upside and all Madison ... More... WEDNESDAY, November 4, 2009:Daily Commentary Madison scores on the major indexes improved BUT are still below the 0 line. More... TUESDAY, November 3, 2009:Daily Commentary Our buy signal is still a winner and for the time being we will stay long. We will add a new buy on the IBB which is a more broad based ETF in the biotech space. More... FRIDAY, October 30, 2009:Daily Commentary Madison scores on the major indexes move below the 0 line except for the Dow Jones Industrial Average which moved back above 0. Other indexes will need to follow in the next day or so. This is one of ... More... THURSDAY, October 29, 2009:Daily Commentary Madison scores on the major indexes move below the 0 line. Any more weakness from here and we may move out of our buy on the overall market. Today sets up for a potential rebound as Q3 GDP is reported at 8:30 More... MONDAY, March 30, 2009:More upside ahead? Very positive as longest stretch since last summer for scores to remain above More... |
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